The Main Event

Of course I started with a picture of Peyton, if anyone knows me, they know I enjoy the Denver Broncos a little bit.  On to some serious talk though. Who to take and when to take them.  I am in a keeper league so I am currently looking at QBs in a different light (I am also very biased and have trouble separating). But, if I'm not in a keeper league here's how I view the pool.

I am a high buyer on Peyton Manning, but I also like to take high risks that don't always work out for me.  But at best, I wouldn't think to pick him until the 3rd round. He will still be there.  There are 4, maybe 5 QBs that are worth taking in the 1st round. If you don't get these QBs, fill other important positions like RB until the second.

1st Round Quarterbacks: (The Obvious Ones)
Tom Brady - No brainer
Drew Brees - Better play for the money he just made
Aaron Rodgers - will be tops until he decides to take a dive
Matthew Stafford - With Megatron and his arm, Madden curse or not, someone will always be open for him
Eli Manning (Maybe) - After his last season, how can you pass on him

2nd Rounders:
Cam Newton - Not sold, Rookie luck, but I think he can still produce and put up big fantasy points
Tony Romo - has 2 diesel wide outs in Dez and Miles and one of the best tight ends in the league.
Matt Ryan - Also has 2 rediculous Wideouts in Julio and Roddy(Yes I am on a first name basis with all WRs) and no running game, so he has to throw the ball this year.
Joe Flacco - Has a huge chip on his shoulder, I look for him to have a big season.
Ryan Fitzpatrick - Had a good season going last year and has the arsenal to do it again

3rd Rounders:
Matt Shaub - with a healthy Andre Johnson, BIG numbers
Josh Freeman - Tampa has upgraded their team with drafting Doug Martin and adding Vincent Jackson and Dallas Clark can only help a decent QB put up good fantasy numbers.
Alex Smith - Could have the best season out of any QB. I'm not sold on the 49ers but I am sold on Smith being a winner.
Peyton Manning - Has the BIGGEST chip on his shoulder and is out to prove he is better than his little brother. Not being bias here, I think the Broncos make a run at the promise land and can only do that with a BIG season from Peyton.

4th Round: filled with unproven or might bes
Michael Vick - I would stay away altogether, but some seem to think the Eagles are going to be something special this year.
Andy Dalton - can be really good. not sure he is ready yet and needs some roster spots filled around him.
Matt Flynn - Showed promise last year, but with arguably the best offense in the league (I could be QB on the Packers)
Matt Hasselback - always puts up good numbers

If you don't get a QB in the first 3 rounds, you better have an arsenal of high scoring RBs and WRs.  There are a few hidden gems in the draft for later though that could be good picks.

Andrew Luck - The obvious one
Roger Griffin III - the other obvious one

I try to stay away from rookie QBs but I did that last year and missed out on Cam Newton.

Kevin Kobb - Should succeed with Larry Fitz
John Skelton - if Kobb fails with Larry Fitz
Carson Palmer - could be a late round steal if you decide to skip over QBs for a while


A couple to stay away from

Mark Sanchez - Hopefully will be passed by Tebow
Whoever starts for the Dolphins
Christian Ponder - Vikings  suck with a healthy or unhealthy AP
Blaine Gabbert - will need time to grow with Blackmon but could be a good tandem in a couple years

Matt Cassel - Eh
Sam Bradford - Won't be passing very much with a healthy Steven Jackson around


I'm sure I missed a couple Gems but this makes sense to me.

A Lack of Running Backs

There aren't a lot of full time RBs out there, teams have seemed to like to split time and change pace in order to control games better.  Which is understandable from a coach POV.  But from the fantasy football fans POV, it sucks and makes drafts and week-to-week very tough.  My solution, draft early and stay away from the split backs.  The obvious picks are keepers in many leagues but will be taken before QBs, in most leagues because of their importance to their team.  Ray Rice will be relavent for a couple more years as the workhorse, look for Arian Foster to have another wonderful season if he stays healthy, but if you draft him, I would draft Ben Tate as a safety net so noone else can have him.  Lesean McCoy Will kill it this year, and Ryan Matthews, since getting rid of Mike Tolbert, is the lone back at San Diego.  I think Chris Johnson will bounce back nicely, and I am super sold on Demarco Murray coming back, he is one of my keepers and I look to ride him all season (stay away from the sexual innuendoes here...pervs). McFadden will be good the first half of the season, but make sure you have something on the bench to fill in, Trent Richardson will be able to contribute right away in a depleted (to say the least) Cleveland Browns team. MJD will be important, if he signs and stays healthy, high risk player though.  Willis McGahee will do work in Denver but THeir rookie will make some noise somewhere this season.

A list of people I am not sold on
Adrian Peterson, because he is injured and wont be 100% all year
Matt Forte, I see Jay Cutler passing a whole lot this year, so Matt will be involved more in passing if he can get open in the flats
Marshawn Lynch, never been sold on this Skittle of joy
Jamal Charles, sucks and is not used correctly in KC
Fred Jackson, getting old and I look for CJ Spiller to make his mark this season.
Any Carolina Running Back (DeAngelo Williams, John Stewart, Mike Tolbert) They will all share time together and Cam Newton will be more importnant in the Red Zone over the others...If forced though, I would take Tolbert, he proved valuable in goal line instances.
Any Redskin RB for the open of the season...Hightower and Helu will share time the beginning of the season, I think Helu will win out the starting job though.
Frank Gore, Because I said so.
Beanie Wells, injury bug

Some Season Surprises to look for in later rounds
CJ Spiller as mentioned before
Peyton Hillis, I look for him to be the workhorse and Jamal Charles to take a back seat again
Doug Martin will win out eventually over a fumble ridden Legarret Blounte
Ahmad Bradshaw is the only RB to note in NY. Look to him when Eli isn't throwing the ball
Reggie Bush is going to be off the chains again after finding his legs again last year.
Mark Ingram will be the feature back in NO but look for Darren Sproles to be a very high scorer in PPR leagues.
I think the the biggest surprise will be Rashard Jennings out of Jacksonville, I forsee MJD getting injured when he signs and Rashad stepping in nicely.

Thats my view on RBs, QBs will be next time.  Chime in if you think I'm wrong or agree with my views.

Deep Field for WIde outs

Interested in fantasy football? My life becomes consumed by it in about another week...haha just kidding I am already consumed in it, running a competitive keeper league, and always researching.  I've decided to share some of what I have come across in my research as of this far.

The most obvious is how how deep the field is for wide outs this year. Starting with Megatron himself (Who unfortunately is on the Madden Cover...ruh roh) and goes to the likes of veterans like Randy Moss who show promise for a sweet come back year. The deep field of Wide outs allows you to search for other needs in the early rounds, especially in a keeper league.  One of my keepers is going to be a dependable wide out in either Miles Austin - DAL(Healthy and the dependable one with LR leaving to JAX and Dez being troublesome) or Hakeem Nicks - NYG (pending how his recovery goes).

I will look into other positions in a later post, but for now let's stay with wide outs.  If, like me, you are willing to wait on wide outs to fill other importnat positions there will be plenty of late round gems out there.  My boys (Broncos) have 2, I am not sure who will have a better year with Peyton at the helm, but you have Eric Decker(A solid POV on Decker and a decent mock draft) who is a route running phenom and Demaryious Thomas who is dangerous for big plays.  in a PPR(Points per reception) league, my bet is on Eric Decker getting the most looks, and a mid round steal.  With Andrew Luck QB in Indy, I think atleast Reggie Wayne - IND and Austin Collie - IND will become more consistent targets.  Dwayne Bowe - KC, looking to test free agency next year, looks to be someone with a huge upside (considering WRs on a contract year usually over perform).  I am not totally sold on Torrey Smith - BAL  but he will be the Number one and will for sure get his looks from Flacco and will be available in the 7th or 8th round. In my eyes he would be one of those "I missed every other receiver I wanted, guess I have to settle with him" picks. 

Other Names to look for in the mid to late rounds: Desean Jackson - PHI, Pierre Garcon - WAS, Justin Blackmon - JAX(because Jax has noone else), Randy Moss - SF (Huge upside and can only go up from where he last ended things), Nate Washington - TEN (because Titans will be Britt-less it looks like), 

(HAHAHA JUST KIDDING, He(Terrel Owens) will get on a team, but will maybe have a touchdown and a couple hundred yards at most)

A couple late round super sleepers: Greg Little - CLE, Chad Ochocinco - MIA, Brandon Gibson - STL (There is noone else in STL and Bradford has to throw to someone. 

Running Backs are the next to be disected. I wanted to get the easy grouping out of the way first.