AFC West Projections

On the day the preseason starts I wanted to start a little series of my predictions, starting with each division and working into the playoffs. I will of course start with the best division (said with huge bias), the AFC West.

This division, like the last few years will be the closest and most competitive with each other. Keep in mind I am not saying it will be the best league, just very competitive with each other.

Denver Broncos: 10-6
Oakland Raiders: 9-7
San Diego Chargers: 9-7
Kansas City Chiefs: 6-10

The Broncos, given that Peyton Manning has no issues, will win this division. Half of me thinks he takes them to a 13-3 record, but I do not think that would be an accurate projection. They might hit 11-5.  They will do it one of two ways, with a very slow start, or a very slow finish, either way they will limp into the playoffs like last year, but be a little more competitive with an MVP caliber QB. There interesting match-ups are: Week 1 primetime vs. the Steelers (Peyton's first regular season game back in 18 months against a hard hitting defense), Week 5 vs. the Patriots (Tom Brady - Peyton Manning rival renewed), Week 8 primetime vs. the Saints (Can the Broncos D stop Brees...can anyone?), week 10 vs. the Panthers could be a high scoring run n' gun match in the 40s, and week 17 vs. the Chiefs could be the game to decide whether or not they make the playoffs or get a First round Bye.

The Raiders, with a healthy Darren McFadden, could be the best team in the division.  With an explosive offense and a pretty easy schedule.  Carson Palmer will now have a full off season to prepare with his offense and should be back to how he used to be, and has a deep, young, talented pool of WRs that include: Darrius Heyward-Bay, Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford (all showed they could be dangerous last season). Some key match-ups include: week 3 vs. the Steelers (McFadden needs to kill it in this game), Week 10 vs. the Ravens (Ravens/Joe Flacco play with huge chips on their shoulder in their division), week 11, vs. the Saints (this could be their high scoring game, they will have to in order to keep up with Brees torching their pathetic defense), and week 17 vs. the Chargers playing for the playoffs. I think this could be the first year in a little while 2 teams could come out of the West into the playoffs.  In order for the Raiders to do so, they have a lot of must-wins out of division like: week 2 vs. Dolphins, week 7 vs. Jaguars, week 9 vs. Buccaneers, week 12 vs. Bengals, week 13 vs. Browns, and week 16 vs. Panthers.

I am not sold on the Chargers this season, losing a few key players in the off-season (i.e. Vincent Jackson and Mike Tolbert) and an aging TE that can't play a whole season anymore.  Having said that, they know they have lost respect in the league and could come out hot to start. The Chargers also have a fairly easy schedule this year and have just as long of a must-win list as the Raiders: week 2 vs. Titans, week 8 vs. Browns, week 10 vs. Buccaneers, week 13 vs. Bengals, week 15 vs. Panthers, and week 16 vs. Jets.  If the Chargers want to take 2nd...or God help me...even 1st, they will have to finish 4-2 in the division, and would have to sweep the Chiefs and split with Broncos and Raiders.  I like their defense this year with Weddle and Jammer as DBs and a BIG D-Line.  Look for the Chargers to play upset in some games this season.

Last...and least...is the lowly Chiefs.  There are a lot of pieces missing on their team. As a Broncos fan, I hope Peyton Hillis wins out over Jamal Charles.  Charles, coming off an ACL injury won't be the same explosive back in the beginning, making them rely on Hillis and their less then stellar passing attack. I am not sold on Matt Cassel...never was...He gets a lot of credit for doing well with the Patriots that surrounded him with players to make it hard for him to not succeed.  Dwayne Bowe will be likely their only bright spot playing for a contract at the end of the season. Having said that, the Chiefs have a fairly easy end to their schedule, with some key wins and a little luck could flip flop their record I have posted on the top.  They have a tough first 6 weeks against (Falcons, Bills, Saints, Chargers, Ravens, Buccaneers) where if they come out at .500 could be okay to finish along side the Raiders and Chargers. Coming down the stretch, they would have to finish winning 5 of 7 of their last games to be competitive...I don't see them finishing that strong but you never know.  They would have to play winnable games against the  Bengals, Panthers, Browns, Raiders and Colts as well as two tough match-ups with division fo Broncos.  I don't see it happening.

Look for the Broncos for sure out of the West and maybe another depending how the AFC North and East finish.

Next is the AFC South.

The Main Event

Of course I started with a picture of Peyton, if anyone knows me, they know I enjoy the Denver Broncos a little bit.  On to some serious talk though. Who to take and when to take them.  I am in a keeper league so I am currently looking at QBs in a different light (I am also very biased and have trouble separating). But, if I'm not in a keeper league here's how I view the pool.

I am a high buyer on Peyton Manning, but I also like to take high risks that don't always work out for me.  But at best, I wouldn't think to pick him until the 3rd round. He will still be there.  There are 4, maybe 5 QBs that are worth taking in the 1st round. If you don't get these QBs, fill other important positions like RB until the second.

1st Round Quarterbacks: (The Obvious Ones)
Tom Brady - No brainer
Drew Brees - Better play for the money he just made
Aaron Rodgers - will be tops until he decides to take a dive
Matthew Stafford - With Megatron and his arm, Madden curse or not, someone will always be open for him
Eli Manning (Maybe) - After his last season, how can you pass on him

2nd Rounders:
Cam Newton - Not sold, Rookie luck, but I think he can still produce and put up big fantasy points
Tony Romo - has 2 diesel wide outs in Dez and Miles and one of the best tight ends in the league.
Matt Ryan - Also has 2 rediculous Wideouts in Julio and Roddy(Yes I am on a first name basis with all WRs) and no running game, so he has to throw the ball this year.
Joe Flacco - Has a huge chip on his shoulder, I look for him to have a big season.
Ryan Fitzpatrick - Had a good season going last year and has the arsenal to do it again

3rd Rounders:
Matt Shaub - with a healthy Andre Johnson, BIG numbers
Josh Freeman - Tampa has upgraded their team with drafting Doug Martin and adding Vincent Jackson and Dallas Clark can only help a decent QB put up good fantasy numbers.
Alex Smith - Could have the best season out of any QB. I'm not sold on the 49ers but I am sold on Smith being a winner.
Peyton Manning - Has the BIGGEST chip on his shoulder and is out to prove he is better than his little brother. Not being bias here, I think the Broncos make a run at the promise land and can only do that with a BIG season from Peyton.

4th Round: filled with unproven or might bes
Michael Vick - I would stay away altogether, but some seem to think the Eagles are going to be something special this year.
Andy Dalton - can be really good. not sure he is ready yet and needs some roster spots filled around him.
Matt Flynn - Showed promise last year, but with arguably the best offense in the league (I could be QB on the Packers)
Matt Hasselback - always puts up good numbers

If you don't get a QB in the first 3 rounds, you better have an arsenal of high scoring RBs and WRs.  There are a few hidden gems in the draft for later though that could be good picks.

Andrew Luck - The obvious one
Roger Griffin III - the other obvious one

I try to stay away from rookie QBs but I did that last year and missed out on Cam Newton.

Kevin Kobb - Should succeed with Larry Fitz
John Skelton - if Kobb fails with Larry Fitz
Carson Palmer - could be a late round steal if you decide to skip over QBs for a while


A couple to stay away from

Mark Sanchez - Hopefully will be passed by Tebow
Whoever starts for the Dolphins
Christian Ponder - Vikings  suck with a healthy or unhealthy AP
Blaine Gabbert - will need time to grow with Blackmon but could be a good tandem in a couple years

Matt Cassel - Eh
Sam Bradford - Won't be passing very much with a healthy Steven Jackson around


I'm sure I missed a couple Gems but this makes sense to me.