AFC West Projections

On the day the preseason starts I wanted to start a little series of my predictions, starting with each division and working into the playoffs. I will of course start with the best division (said with huge bias), the AFC West.

This division, like the last few years will be the closest and most competitive with each other. Keep in mind I am not saying it will be the best league, just very competitive with each other.

Denver Broncos: 10-6
Oakland Raiders: 9-7
San Diego Chargers: 9-7
Kansas City Chiefs: 6-10

The Broncos, given that Peyton Manning has no issues, will win this division. Half of me thinks he takes them to a 13-3 record, but I do not think that would be an accurate projection. They might hit 11-5.  They will do it one of two ways, with a very slow start, or a very slow finish, either way they will limp into the playoffs like last year, but be a little more competitive with an MVP caliber QB. There interesting match-ups are: Week 1 primetime vs. the Steelers (Peyton's first regular season game back in 18 months against a hard hitting defense), Week 5 vs. the Patriots (Tom Brady - Peyton Manning rival renewed), Week 8 primetime vs. the Saints (Can the Broncos D stop Brees...can anyone?), week 10 vs. the Panthers could be a high scoring run n' gun match in the 40s, and week 17 vs. the Chiefs could be the game to decide whether or not they make the playoffs or get a First round Bye.

The Raiders, with a healthy Darren McFadden, could be the best team in the division.  With an explosive offense and a pretty easy schedule.  Carson Palmer will now have a full off season to prepare with his offense and should be back to how he used to be, and has a deep, young, talented pool of WRs that include: Darrius Heyward-Bay, Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford (all showed they could be dangerous last season). Some key match-ups include: week 3 vs. the Steelers (McFadden needs to kill it in this game), Week 10 vs. the Ravens (Ravens/Joe Flacco play with huge chips on their shoulder in their division), week 11, vs. the Saints (this could be their high scoring game, they will have to in order to keep up with Brees torching their pathetic defense), and week 17 vs. the Chargers playing for the playoffs. I think this could be the first year in a little while 2 teams could come out of the West into the playoffs.  In order for the Raiders to do so, they have a lot of must-wins out of division like: week 2 vs. Dolphins, week 7 vs. Jaguars, week 9 vs. Buccaneers, week 12 vs. Bengals, week 13 vs. Browns, and week 16 vs. Panthers.

I am not sold on the Chargers this season, losing a few key players in the off-season (i.e. Vincent Jackson and Mike Tolbert) and an aging TE that can't play a whole season anymore.  Having said that, they know they have lost respect in the league and could come out hot to start. The Chargers also have a fairly easy schedule this year and have just as long of a must-win list as the Raiders: week 2 vs. Titans, week 8 vs. Browns, week 10 vs. Buccaneers, week 13 vs. Bengals, week 15 vs. Panthers, and week 16 vs. Jets.  If the Chargers want to take 2nd...or God help me...even 1st, they will have to finish 4-2 in the division, and would have to sweep the Chiefs and split with Broncos and Raiders.  I like their defense this year with Weddle and Jammer as DBs and a BIG D-Line.  Look for the Chargers to play upset in some games this season.

Last...and least...is the lowly Chiefs.  There are a lot of pieces missing on their team. As a Broncos fan, I hope Peyton Hillis wins out over Jamal Charles.  Charles, coming off an ACL injury won't be the same explosive back in the beginning, making them rely on Hillis and their less then stellar passing attack. I am not sold on Matt Cassel...never was...He gets a lot of credit for doing well with the Patriots that surrounded him with players to make it hard for him to not succeed.  Dwayne Bowe will be likely their only bright spot playing for a contract at the end of the season. Having said that, the Chiefs have a fairly easy end to their schedule, with some key wins and a little luck could flip flop their record I have posted on the top.  They have a tough first 6 weeks against (Falcons, Bills, Saints, Chargers, Ravens, Buccaneers) where if they come out at .500 could be okay to finish along side the Raiders and Chargers. Coming down the stretch, they would have to finish winning 5 of 7 of their last games to be competitive...I don't see them finishing that strong but you never know.  They would have to play winnable games against the  Bengals, Panthers, Browns, Raiders and Colts as well as two tough match-ups with division fo Broncos.  I don't see it happening.

Look for the Broncos for sure out of the West and maybe another depending how the AFC North and East finish.

Next is the AFC South.

Deep Field for WIde outs

Interested in fantasy football? My life becomes consumed by it in about another week...haha just kidding I am already consumed in it, running a competitive keeper league, and always researching.  I've decided to share some of what I have come across in my research as of this far.

The most obvious is how how deep the field is for wide outs this year. Starting with Megatron himself (Who unfortunately is on the Madden Cover...ruh roh) and goes to the likes of veterans like Randy Moss who show promise for a sweet come back year. The deep field of Wide outs allows you to search for other needs in the early rounds, especially in a keeper league.  One of my keepers is going to be a dependable wide out in either Miles Austin - DAL(Healthy and the dependable one with LR leaving to JAX and Dez being troublesome) or Hakeem Nicks - NYG (pending how his recovery goes).

I will look into other positions in a later post, but for now let's stay with wide outs.  If, like me, you are willing to wait on wide outs to fill other importnat positions there will be plenty of late round gems out there.  My boys (Broncos) have 2, I am not sure who will have a better year with Peyton at the helm, but you have Eric Decker(A solid POV on Decker and a decent mock draft) who is a route running phenom and Demaryious Thomas who is dangerous for big plays.  in a PPR(Points per reception) league, my bet is on Eric Decker getting the most looks, and a mid round steal.  With Andrew Luck QB in Indy, I think atleast Reggie Wayne - IND and Austin Collie - IND will become more consistent targets.  Dwayne Bowe - KC, looking to test free agency next year, looks to be someone with a huge upside (considering WRs on a contract year usually over perform).  I am not totally sold on Torrey Smith - BAL  but he will be the Number one and will for sure get his looks from Flacco and will be available in the 7th or 8th round. In my eyes he would be one of those "I missed every other receiver I wanted, guess I have to settle with him" picks. 

Other Names to look for in the mid to late rounds: Desean Jackson - PHI, Pierre Garcon - WAS, Justin Blackmon - JAX(because Jax has noone else), Randy Moss - SF (Huge upside and can only go up from where he last ended things), Nate Washington - TEN (because Titans will be Britt-less it looks like), 

(HAHAHA JUST KIDDING, He(Terrel Owens) will get on a team, but will maybe have a touchdown and a couple hundred yards at most)

A couple late round super sleepers: Greg Little - CLE, Chad Ochocinco - MIA, Brandon Gibson - STL (There is noone else in STL and Bradford has to throw to someone. 

Running Backs are the next to be disected. I wanted to get the easy grouping out of the way first.