AFC North Projections

Now I have been very conservative with my first projections to get into the swing of things.  Not in this league. I see 2 very good team, a decent team, and a very bad team.

Baltimore Ravens - 12-4
Pittsburgh Steelers - 12-4
Cincinnati Bengals - 6-10
Cleveland Browns - 3-13

Let's start with the Ravens.  They have a chip on their shoulder every year because everyone thinks the Steelers are the best in the division. So far they have been.  With Flacco out to prove his worth, the Ravens will be the team to beat this year.  I see them only losing to the Patriots, Steelers once, Broncos and Texans. With an old, but dependable defense, and the top producing RB in the league (Ray Rice), They are built to beat the real easy teams and be dangerous for the Patriots and Steelers and Texans (I'd say the three favorites in the AFC).  I think this can be the Ravens year to go deeper than they have recently in the playoffs.

Next stop Pittsburgh.  The steelers are a proven winning team with a born winner at QB and the toughest D in the league..STILL.  With and easier schedule this year, I expect Big Ben (I call him that because I forget how to spell his last name) will have the breakout year numbers wise we have been waiting for.  Mike Wallace and a solid #2 in Antonio Brown will help him produce, as well as a healthy Rashard Mendenhall. They have tended to have trouble with scoring against the easier teams in the past, if they do that this year they are in trouble.  Their must wins: week 2 vs. Jets, week 3 vs. Raiders, weeks 5-10 against the Eagles, Titans, Bengals, Redskins, and Chiefs.  The Steelers could go 14-2 if the start 7-2 in the first 10 weeks. They have a very easy schedule down the stretch which should allow them to rest some key players here and there and push them for home field advantage through out playoffs.

The Cincinnati Bengals are so close to being a 12-4 team with the Ravens and Steelers.  Losing a productive back in Cedric Benson I think hurts their chances a lot. Andy Dalton surprised everyone last year, I hope he can keep up the mojo with his Sophomore partner in crime in A.J. Green.  If their defense plays as good as it did last year (and is on my fantasy team again), I can see a change in their record a little bit, but I think the Ravens and Steelers are still a little to good. Next year I can see a little shift in the powers in this league.  If they start out strong with an easy first 6 weeks, they can contend for the final play off spot with other 8-8 teams in the league.

Now for the lowly Cleveland Browns.  I had a very hard time giving this team 3 wins.  Looking back at their schedule, it is one of the toughest. or it just looks that way because they don't have a good defense, drafted a 28 year old QB, and their star rookie already has had 2 knee surgeries this year.  Trent Richardson will have high production games, which will drag them to winning 3 times this year, but I look for him to start his career much like Darren McFadden, fast, btu won't finish the whole year out. I can see them beating the Bengals once, and Maybe steeling one from a playoff bound team in mid season games like the Cowboys or Raiders.

When healthy and playing to potential, the Steelers and Ravens are two of the top 8 teams in the whole league and will be out to win the championship this year. As for the Bengals, next year is best...and the Browns....In a couple years (Work on that Defense!)

The much anticipated AFC East is next on the docket.

AFC South Projections

Next in line for projections is what used to be a pretty good division, the AFC South. Good teams gone south in the AFC South. One dominant team with 3 rebuilding teams.

I think competition will be close between 3 of the teams with one winning out right and early in the season.  The Jaguars, Titans and Colts will all be close together but the Texans are by far the best in this division and will look to build on how well they played last year.

Houston Texans: 12-4
Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-8
Tennessee Titans: 7-9
Indianapolis Colts: 6-10

Let's start at the top, The Houston Texans are one of the best teams in the conference with a decent schedule. Given that Arian Foster, Matt Schuab and Andre Johnson stay healthy, they can make a push pretty deep into the playoffs. Look for Ben Tate to play a roll deep into the season as well. They did lose a big defender this off season but have plenty around him that can step up with Brian Cushing and Glover Quinn. To prove they are good, they need to win the easy match-ups and win some key match-ups against: Week 6 vs. Jets (No one wants to lose to the Tebow Mania this year), Week 7 vs. Packers (Not sure they can win but this would be a great way to make some noise), Week 8 vs. Ravens, week 12 vs. Lions, and week 14 vs. Patriots (After this game, the road gets easier into the playoffs).  Texans will sweep their division, well maybe a Chris Johnson break out game could prevent that.

While the Jaguars are just as bad as the other 3 teams but do have a solid offense core. Blaine Gabbert will be a reliable QB in the future and MJD has proven he can carry the load when needed. Drew has one more good season in him unless he gets injured.  If MJD can't provide what they are looking for, they have a more than capable back up in Rashard Jennings. Having said that, in order to have a chance, they need to sweep the Colts, and beat all the teams to the likes of the Dolphins, Raiders, Bengals and Vikings.  Who knows, if a couple teams don't live up to their moxie, they could fall into the last playoff spot.

The Titans have one of the hardest schedules in the league and a not so good offense and defense. Just because they have one good individual player doesn't mean they are good as a team. Chris Johnson will break out again this year, but they have a real issue at QB.  They still have faith in Hassleback, but if they want to move on, they need to trust Jake Locker for the year and see if he is the direction they are going in. Hassleback is not the answer, never was for any other team he played for.  They are not in the  talks or anywhere near it this year and not worth a paragraph in my opinion.

Th Colts are the talk of the town in this division with the acquiring of the "Next Peyton Manning" in Andrew Luck and his partner in crime from Stanford, Coby Fleener.  They don't have a terribly hard schedule but I think in experience will hurt them in close games with other average teams, especially in the beginning of the season.  Their schedule ends roughly with two out the last three against the Texans, so they could possibly hurt the Texans chance at a bye week in the play offs if they work into a nice routine by then.

All-in-all not a very good league anymore. Transition is the word to explain this league.

The chalk full AFC North is next.

AFC West Projections

On the day the preseason starts I wanted to start a little series of my predictions, starting with each division and working into the playoffs. I will of course start with the best division (said with huge bias), the AFC West.

This division, like the last few years will be the closest and most competitive with each other. Keep in mind I am not saying it will be the best league, just very competitive with each other.

Denver Broncos: 10-6
Oakland Raiders: 9-7
San Diego Chargers: 9-7
Kansas City Chiefs: 6-10

The Broncos, given that Peyton Manning has no issues, will win this division. Half of me thinks he takes them to a 13-3 record, but I do not think that would be an accurate projection. They might hit 11-5.  They will do it one of two ways, with a very slow start, or a very slow finish, either way they will limp into the playoffs like last year, but be a little more competitive with an MVP caliber QB. There interesting match-ups are: Week 1 primetime vs. the Steelers (Peyton's first regular season game back in 18 months against a hard hitting defense), Week 5 vs. the Patriots (Tom Brady - Peyton Manning rival renewed), Week 8 primetime vs. the Saints (Can the Broncos D stop Brees...can anyone?), week 10 vs. the Panthers could be a high scoring run n' gun match in the 40s, and week 17 vs. the Chiefs could be the game to decide whether or not they make the playoffs or get a First round Bye.

The Raiders, with a healthy Darren McFadden, could be the best team in the division.  With an explosive offense and a pretty easy schedule.  Carson Palmer will now have a full off season to prepare with his offense and should be back to how he used to be, and has a deep, young, talented pool of WRs that include: Darrius Heyward-Bay, Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford (all showed they could be dangerous last season). Some key match-ups include: week 3 vs. the Steelers (McFadden needs to kill it in this game), Week 10 vs. the Ravens (Ravens/Joe Flacco play with huge chips on their shoulder in their division), week 11, vs. the Saints (this could be their high scoring game, they will have to in order to keep up with Brees torching their pathetic defense), and week 17 vs. the Chargers playing for the playoffs. I think this could be the first year in a little while 2 teams could come out of the West into the playoffs.  In order for the Raiders to do so, they have a lot of must-wins out of division like: week 2 vs. Dolphins, week 7 vs. Jaguars, week 9 vs. Buccaneers, week 12 vs. Bengals, week 13 vs. Browns, and week 16 vs. Panthers.

I am not sold on the Chargers this season, losing a few key players in the off-season (i.e. Vincent Jackson and Mike Tolbert) and an aging TE that can't play a whole season anymore.  Having said that, they know they have lost respect in the league and could come out hot to start. The Chargers also have a fairly easy schedule this year and have just as long of a must-win list as the Raiders: week 2 vs. Titans, week 8 vs. Browns, week 10 vs. Buccaneers, week 13 vs. Bengals, week 15 vs. Panthers, and week 16 vs. Jets.  If the Chargers want to take 2nd...or God help me...even 1st, they will have to finish 4-2 in the division, and would have to sweep the Chiefs and split with Broncos and Raiders.  I like their defense this year with Weddle and Jammer as DBs and a BIG D-Line.  Look for the Chargers to play upset in some games this season.

Last...and least...is the lowly Chiefs.  There are a lot of pieces missing on their team. As a Broncos fan, I hope Peyton Hillis wins out over Jamal Charles.  Charles, coming off an ACL injury won't be the same explosive back in the beginning, making them rely on Hillis and their less then stellar passing attack. I am not sold on Matt Cassel...never was...He gets a lot of credit for doing well with the Patriots that surrounded him with players to make it hard for him to not succeed.  Dwayne Bowe will be likely their only bright spot playing for a contract at the end of the season. Having said that, the Chiefs have a fairly easy end to their schedule, with some key wins and a little luck could flip flop their record I have posted on the top.  They have a tough first 6 weeks against (Falcons, Bills, Saints, Chargers, Ravens, Buccaneers) where if they come out at .500 could be okay to finish along side the Raiders and Chargers. Coming down the stretch, they would have to finish winning 5 of 7 of their last games to be competitive...I don't see them finishing that strong but you never know.  They would have to play winnable games against the  Bengals, Panthers, Browns, Raiders and Colts as well as two tough match-ups with division fo Broncos.  I don't see it happening.

Look for the Broncos for sure out of the West and maybe another depending how the AFC North and East finish.

Next is the AFC South.

Olympic HIghlights

I am officially on Vacation with my Wife (soon to be kid) and the rest of my family.  It hit when i had my iphone on the NBCOlympics app watching the 1500m finals...at the beach...getting my tan on, and the occasional swim myself. Although I'd rather have swam in a pool than the ocean. I wanted to be able to touch on some Olympics before it was over so I didn't totally ignore this wonderful event that only takes place every 2 years (if you count the Winter ones). I wanted to first congratulate NBC on the intense coverage through Mobile, web and TV. The coverage (while I haven't been a huge fan of the commentary) has been the best since I have been alive, thanks in part to the growth of technology in my young life.  I haven't been able to watch as much as I have in the past because I have to work during the week, but this year I have broadened the types of sports I have watched

Usually I stuck to the Gymnastics, Track & Field, Swimming, diving, Beach Volleyball.  This year I have watched the likes of Archery, Judo, Badminton, Canoe/Kayak, Handball, Water Polo, Shooting, Tennis, Sailing, Equestrian, as well as my usually favorites I already listed.  While my favorite sport has just got underway, in case you haven't watched any Olympics I wanted to touch on some USA highlights and low lights so far.

Highlights:
Michael Phelps becomes the winningest Olympian ever with 22 Medals (18 of which Gold)
Serena Williams wins gold by crushing Maria Sharapova in the finals
Dana Vollmer Gold Medals
U.S. team nabs Silver behind Great Britain in Cycling
15 Year Old Katie Ledecky takes home gold in the Women's 800m freestyle
Missy Franklin wins gold and sets a world record for the 200m Backstroke
The one MIANER Elle Logan was part of the US Women's Crew Gold medalists
Gabby Douglas wins gold in both individual and team all-around gymnastics competitions
USA Mens basketball beats Nigeria by 83 points, more points than Nigeria actually scored
Kayla Harrison makes history by winning Gold for the first time ever in Judo for USA
Rebecca Soni sets the 200m Breaststroke world record by 2.5 seconds in a Gold Medal win

I am sure I have missed some events, sorry I didn't mention a bunch of Badmintoners getting kicked out for losing on purpose...wait I just did. There are still some sweet stories out there for the next week.

I am unbelievably excited for the 100m Mens dual between Usain Bolt and Justin Gaitlin to see who is the fastest man in the world.  as well as every other track event.  Although I refuse to watch the Mens basketball, I will still keep an eye and see if they can step up and prove they are better than 1992. Still a week of greatness to be had.  Although John Isner was kicked out, the Andy Murray Roger Federer finals tennis I believe will be a match for the ages.

What a great thing to have take our minds off the bad in the world right now.  Olympics couldn't have had better timing if you ask me.

The Main Event

Of course I started with a picture of Peyton, if anyone knows me, they know I enjoy the Denver Broncos a little bit.  On to some serious talk though. Who to take and when to take them.  I am in a keeper league so I am currently looking at QBs in a different light (I am also very biased and have trouble separating). But, if I'm not in a keeper league here's how I view the pool.

I am a high buyer on Peyton Manning, but I also like to take high risks that don't always work out for me.  But at best, I wouldn't think to pick him until the 3rd round. He will still be there.  There are 4, maybe 5 QBs that are worth taking in the 1st round. If you don't get these QBs, fill other important positions like RB until the second.

1st Round Quarterbacks: (The Obvious Ones)
Tom Brady - No brainer
Drew Brees - Better play for the money he just made
Aaron Rodgers - will be tops until he decides to take a dive
Matthew Stafford - With Megatron and his arm, Madden curse or not, someone will always be open for him
Eli Manning (Maybe) - After his last season, how can you pass on him

2nd Rounders:
Cam Newton - Not sold, Rookie luck, but I think he can still produce and put up big fantasy points
Tony Romo - has 2 diesel wide outs in Dez and Miles and one of the best tight ends in the league.
Matt Ryan - Also has 2 rediculous Wideouts in Julio and Roddy(Yes I am on a first name basis with all WRs) and no running game, so he has to throw the ball this year.
Joe Flacco - Has a huge chip on his shoulder, I look for him to have a big season.
Ryan Fitzpatrick - Had a good season going last year and has the arsenal to do it again

3rd Rounders:
Matt Shaub - with a healthy Andre Johnson, BIG numbers
Josh Freeman - Tampa has upgraded their team with drafting Doug Martin and adding Vincent Jackson and Dallas Clark can only help a decent QB put up good fantasy numbers.
Alex Smith - Could have the best season out of any QB. I'm not sold on the 49ers but I am sold on Smith being a winner.
Peyton Manning - Has the BIGGEST chip on his shoulder and is out to prove he is better than his little brother. Not being bias here, I think the Broncos make a run at the promise land and can only do that with a BIG season from Peyton.

4th Round: filled with unproven or might bes
Michael Vick - I would stay away altogether, but some seem to think the Eagles are going to be something special this year.
Andy Dalton - can be really good. not sure he is ready yet and needs some roster spots filled around him.
Matt Flynn - Showed promise last year, but with arguably the best offense in the league (I could be QB on the Packers)
Matt Hasselback - always puts up good numbers

If you don't get a QB in the first 3 rounds, you better have an arsenal of high scoring RBs and WRs.  There are a few hidden gems in the draft for later though that could be good picks.

Andrew Luck - The obvious one
Roger Griffin III - the other obvious one

I try to stay away from rookie QBs but I did that last year and missed out on Cam Newton.

Kevin Kobb - Should succeed with Larry Fitz
John Skelton - if Kobb fails with Larry Fitz
Carson Palmer - could be a late round steal if you decide to skip over QBs for a while


A couple to stay away from

Mark Sanchez - Hopefully will be passed by Tebow
Whoever starts for the Dolphins
Christian Ponder - Vikings  suck with a healthy or unhealthy AP
Blaine Gabbert - will need time to grow with Blackmon but could be a good tandem in a couple years

Matt Cassel - Eh
Sam Bradford - Won't be passing very much with a healthy Steven Jackson around


I'm sure I missed a couple Gems but this makes sense to me.

A Lack of Running Backs

There aren't a lot of full time RBs out there, teams have seemed to like to split time and change pace in order to control games better.  Which is understandable from a coach POV.  But from the fantasy football fans POV, it sucks and makes drafts and week-to-week very tough.  My solution, draft early and stay away from the split backs.  The obvious picks are keepers in many leagues but will be taken before QBs, in most leagues because of their importance to their team.  Ray Rice will be relavent for a couple more years as the workhorse, look for Arian Foster to have another wonderful season if he stays healthy, but if you draft him, I would draft Ben Tate as a safety net so noone else can have him.  Lesean McCoy Will kill it this year, and Ryan Matthews, since getting rid of Mike Tolbert, is the lone back at San Diego.  I think Chris Johnson will bounce back nicely, and I am super sold on Demarco Murray coming back, he is one of my keepers and I look to ride him all season (stay away from the sexual innuendoes here...pervs). McFadden will be good the first half of the season, but make sure you have something on the bench to fill in, Trent Richardson will be able to contribute right away in a depleted (to say the least) Cleveland Browns team. MJD will be important, if he signs and stays healthy, high risk player though.  Willis McGahee will do work in Denver but THeir rookie will make some noise somewhere this season.

A list of people I am not sold on
Adrian Peterson, because he is injured and wont be 100% all year
Matt Forte, I see Jay Cutler passing a whole lot this year, so Matt will be involved more in passing if he can get open in the flats
Marshawn Lynch, never been sold on this Skittle of joy
Jamal Charles, sucks and is not used correctly in KC
Fred Jackson, getting old and I look for CJ Spiller to make his mark this season.
Any Carolina Running Back (DeAngelo Williams, John Stewart, Mike Tolbert) They will all share time together and Cam Newton will be more importnant in the Red Zone over the others...If forced though, I would take Tolbert, he proved valuable in goal line instances.
Any Redskin RB for the open of the season...Hightower and Helu will share time the beginning of the season, I think Helu will win out the starting job though.
Frank Gore, Because I said so.
Beanie Wells, injury bug

Some Season Surprises to look for in later rounds
CJ Spiller as mentioned before
Peyton Hillis, I look for him to be the workhorse and Jamal Charles to take a back seat again
Doug Martin will win out eventually over a fumble ridden Legarret Blounte
Ahmad Bradshaw is the only RB to note in NY. Look to him when Eli isn't throwing the ball
Reggie Bush is going to be off the chains again after finding his legs again last year.
Mark Ingram will be the feature back in NO but look for Darren Sproles to be a very high scorer in PPR leagues.
I think the the biggest surprise will be Rashard Jennings out of Jacksonville, I forsee MJD getting injured when he signs and Rashad stepping in nicely.

Thats my view on RBs, QBs will be next time.  Chime in if you think I'm wrong or agree with my views.

Tiger Talk

I am going to take a quick break from fantasy talk here and touch base on some Tiger Woods, this is for you Burke Lord.  Mr. Eldrick Tont Woods. Actually having a pretty successful come back this year despite critics.  The only criticism for Tiger is his lack of winning at a Major.  Lets take a look at his Major finishes:

Masters: Tied 40th at +5
US Open: Tied 21st at +7
British Open: Tied 3rd at -3

Slowly getting better and it's only a matter of time until he takes home another Major...It might have to be next year, but I see a green Jacket in his future.  The issue is not him sucking, its the field around him getting better as well; the fact that there has been 18 different champions in the last 18 different Majors, Tiger being one of them (2008 US Open). Which ultimately, I think, is good for the sport overall.

Major status set aside, let's take a look at some different stats this year. Tiger is number one on the money list by about 250,000 bucks. Tiger is number one in FedEx Cup points by 32. Tiger has the most wins in the season with 3. He is tied for 9th with 5 top ten finishes and has made 10 of 13 cute this season.  All in all, a pretty damn successful year so far. oh...AND...Tiger is #2 in the World, working towards his #1 ranking again.

Tiger is now just as good as the rest of the top players in the league. He is still the reason I started playing (as well as most any male my age) and I will defend to the end.  Tiger will be on top soon enough.